L-R: Tinubu, Atiku, Obi
In barely five months Nigerians would be going to the polls to elect a new leader to replace President Muhammadu Buhari. Since the advent of the Third Republic in 1999, the coming election would be the biggest test so far for the nation. This is so because it won’t be business as usual where the nation’s two main parties the All Progressive Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, would have to slug it out all on their own. Like a bolt out of the blues, a third force known as the Labour Party, LP, has emerged on the national scene to trouble the APC and PDP. The APC has a former Lagos State governor in the person of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as its standard bearer in the coming election while Atiku Abubakar, a one time Nigeria’s Vice President is flying the flag of the PDP. Peter Obi, who once govern the Eastern Nigerian state of Anambra, representing the LP, has become the nemesis of the APC and PDP. There are over two dozens presidential candidates representing various parties at the forthcoming election. Unarguably, the three front men are: Tinubu, Atiku and Obi. Though they have attained the high ground to dictate the narratives of the coming election, all three are carrying baggages which may mar their chances of winning next February.

TINUBU
The moment he announced a fellow Muslim as his running mate, I’m sure Tinubu himself knew he was in trouble. Yes, his choice of running on a Muslim-Muslim ticket may have been informed by exigencies to win northern votes but in an uncertain times such as is prevalent in Nigeria today, the issue has become burdensome and distraction for Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Everywhere he turns and at every fora he’s confronted by this albatross. Tried as he has done to wish the burden away, more and more Christian groups and leaders are throwing the issue right back in his face – it won’t just go away. In a polarised and fragmented nation as Nigeria, any of the candidate who chose to toy with burning issues or an emotional electorate, laden with griefs, does so at his own peril. Tinubu would need every vote to counter an Obi phenomenon, discounting a Christian vote may not augur well. So what can he do to assuage the fears of Christians and win their votes? The APC candidate needs to seriously consider sitting with Christian leaders, assurances are not enough, he needs to now start making concessions. Tinubu and his party may have to enter agreement with Christian leaders that both arms of the National Assembly, the Senate and House of Representatives won’t be led by Muslims if he wins the election. This is the task before the man popularly known as Jabagan and his party the APC.

ATIKU
The PDP set the template for equity and fairness in 1999 in the the nation smouldered with indignation from the injustice of the annulment of the June 12, 1993 election by the dictator Ibrahim Babangida and his military goons. The PDP went on to institute the doctrine of rotating the presidency between the north and south of the country. Atiku Abubakar can’t feign ignorance about the existence of this doctrine, yet he’s resolute that he’s the right man to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner who has been leading the nation over the past seven years. This is the burden Atiku is carrying. A nation divided along tribal and religious lines, where suspicions are rife, can’t afford the gamble Atiku is trying to pull off. I don’t think Nigerians are ready to replace a Fulani with another Fulani in the presidency. Both Buhari and Atiku are of the Fulani stock. Perhaps Atiku ought to have learnt a lesson or two from Goodluck Jonathan, a southerner, who against all advice contested the 2015 presidency slated for a northerner. Jonathan as incumbent President lost that election. Atiku has an uphill task to paralyse history repeating itself.

OBI
Candidate Obi is enjoying rare attention usually accorded only the flag bearers of the two main parties. His “obi-dient” supporters are everywhere on the social media pushing for their candidate. Obi has managed to ignite a frenzy among the youths and some in the diaspora. But his opponents are quick to remind him that he hasn’t any structure upon which to be elected Nigeria’s president. By structure they are saying that candidate Obi and his LP hadn’t a sitting Governor, senator or House of Representative member anywhere in the country. However, Obi’s supporters are quick to boast theirs is a mass movement with millions of voluntary enlisters in their ranks. In reality though, it’s a fact that the social media doesn’t win election in Nigeria. Majority of those who are voting on election day are not present there. It is true also that without a structure it’s impossible to win election in Nigeria. Structure in this case means heavy war chest – funds! By structure the opponents are also talking about having sitting Governors as backers – these are lords of the manor in their respective states. They are the men on ground, they know how to deploy the war chest for maximum effect. Nigeria’s democracy is evolving, we are not there yet, this is one lesson Obi supporters must learn. So what can Obi do to counter this shortcoming of structure? The answer is simple, the time has come for him to tell his supporters to remove the veil of social media and start knocking on doors to sell their candidate. Obi can’t match an Atiku or Tinubu war chest but his supporters can go from house to house to cancel out whatever their opponents are throwing up. Are Obi supporters ready to walk the talks? We shall know for sure in the few months ahead.