Events of the last couple of weeks, including the scarcity of fuel as well as the local currency the Naira, plunged the elections in the back burner. In spite of mounting challenges confronting the nation voters would be electing a new President to replace the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari and members of both houses of the nation’s national assembly.
Lagos State with 6,214,970, has the highest number of voters followed by Kano with 5,594,193; Kaduna is third with 4,164,473; followed by Katsina’s 3,459,945; and Rivers with 3,285,785.As earlier reported on this platform, the three front runners for the office of the President are Bola Tinubu of the All Progressive Congress, APC, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, LP.
For any of these three candidates to be victorious in the February 25 election, he must win a minimum of two out of these big five states to stand a realistic chance of reaching the presidency. In the last three election circles, starting from 2011, victorious candidates have had to carry some of these states to reach Aso Rock.
In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP triumphed over Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress of Progressive Change, CPC, because he won big in Lagos and Rivers. Though Buhari triumphed in his home state of Katsina, Kano and Kaduna, he couldn’t make any noticeable in-road in the southern part of the country while Jonathan took pockets of states in the north. The Lagos and Rivers win cemented victory for Jonathan.
In 2015, Buhari triumphed over Jonathan carrying Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Kano and Lagos. The Lagos victory was key as it cemented Buhari’s victory. Again in 2019, Buhari triumphed carrying four of the five biggies to Atiku Abubakar of the PDP’s one – Rivers.
So how will the candidates fare in the five states going to this election? Starting with Rivers, the Governor Nyesom Wike factor will be decisive in who wins here. Before now this was the stronghold of the PDP – the party has triumphed here since the advent of the third republic in 1999. However, the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as the flag bearer of the party has divided the PDP. Wike has been fighting an atrocious war with Mr Abubakar. It is clear now that he has thrown his support behind Bola Tinubu of the APC. But is Wike enough to earn Tinubu victory in Rivers? The answer is no. Though the PDP will lose here, Peter Obi of Labour Party stands to gain votes that would have gone to PDP. The race in Rivers is tough to call but in the end Obi of Labour should seal victory here.
In Kano, another presidential hopeful in the person of Rabiu Kwankwanso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, will test his might against his arch rival and sitting Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje of the APC. The PDP or LP has no stake in the election here. This is a straight fight between the APC and NNPP. The election here is going to be tight as the pendulum might swing either way.
Katsina is the home state of Buhari, he has never lost election here. He has told the whole nation that he is behind the APC candidate to triumph and replace him. Tinubu has a staunch ally in the sitting Governor Aminu Bello Masari who has been doggedly campaigning for the Jagaban. APC should easily take Katsina.
In Kaduna, the Christian factor should play in favour of Peter Obi but will it be enough to seal victory? No. Governor Nasir El Rufai sees this election as a rite of passage to silence the so called cabal caging Buhari in Aso Rock. He knows a victory here for his party the APC will impact the outcome of who becomes the president of Nigeria. He has been working to ensure victory for Tinubu. This is another APC stronghold.
Lagos is the home of the city boy as Tinubu likes to pride himself. Lagos is straight fight between the Jagaban and Peter Obi. The Igbo factor will definitely play out here. The surge in the number of voters here point to that fact. If there is voters apathy, the coast is clear for APC’s victory but if turnout is huge expect a tight race. Which ever way Tinubu should seal victory in his home state.
There will be a straight winner after the poll on Saturday, there won’t be any runoff as been touted in certain quarters.
